Has anyone calculated the total number of possible combinations?

64 hexes X 7 lines (incl. UC), in any combinqtion of 1, 2,3,4,5 or 6 lines...thats a lot of possibilities! So the probability of drawing the same casting twice in a row is actually quite small, and that is a significant event, no? I'm sure someone on this site has figured out the probability of that happening!

I think the total number of possible combinations is 4096 but I stand to be corrected...maths is not my forte.

But as for casting the same cast twice in a row, yes it seems significant but isn't that rare. i've known that happen many times and so have others I imagine. It does tend to show the answers aren't random and we are being answered...if we are doubtful sometimes it helps.

https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.112565475503377.21842.100002497766476&l=5416370a5a
Take a look at these charts.Do they make any sense ?

There are 4096 possible casts. If you can find the probability of a specific cast just square the fraction to get the figure for getting that cast twice in a row. Assymetry is yarrow. Symmetry is coins.

I worked out the odds of getting any random Yarrow cast twice in a row as 1/801. and about 1/1000 for Coins. I forget how. I would have to pull out some files and refresh and get my mind into probability mode.

I studied a sample of 800 yarrow casts.There was only one back to back : 63.3 - 3. Looking at the assymetry chart the odds are 1/652.1 Twice back to back this becomes 1/425,234.41
It came up three times in the sample. I dont know the odds of that.

If a cast repeats its usually important.That 63.3 - 3 was about a litigation which lasted exactly three years from a deadline date in a first letter to a deadline date in the last letter.I ignored the first deadline ( as per 54.4 : procrastinate, from another cast ) but not the second deadline.Not advisable to ignore two court orders in a row.

Wow, impressive tables! Is that based on your personal records?

My statistics skills are a bit rusty, but If there are 4096 possible casts, and they all have the same probability of being drawn, then the odds of getting the same one twice in a row would be 1/4096 x 1/4096 = 1/16,777,216, ie 1/17 million roughly. That's pretty awesome, and hard to dismiss as a random event. It really draws attention to the casting.

I find that if I get a repeat its often because I missed something the first time. I just got 23UC as daily readings two days in a row. I thought Id got the message the first time, but clearly there must be more to it than I thought! Fascinating.

I've always found the 4096 possibilities to be limited to the moment(s) it takes to cast. If time is added into the equation, it's infinite possibilities; all the more (more infinite?) when context is brought into the mix.

At the same time, receiving the same answer for essentially the same question dramatically increases the likeliness or odds, that is if you believe an oracle is true. How much more does belief increase the odds? These things can not be measured by Newton.

Good points, Meng. I find that my state of mind, ie consciousness, affects the castings a lot. If I ask a question in a state of utter distress, and ask again the next day after having had time to calm down and ponder, the results can be very different.

Actually, I think that quantum physics theories postulate that consciousness has an impact on random events... Something along the lines of: the very act of observing an experiment skews its natural outcome.

yasmin said:

Good points, Meng. I find that my state of mind, ie consciousness, affects the castings a lot. If I ask a question in a state of utter distress, and ask again the next day after having had time to calm down and ponder, the results can be very different.

Actually, I think that quantum physics theories postulate that consciousness has an impact on random events... Something along the lines of: the very act of observing an experiment skews its natural outcome.

Click to expand...

It's my present belief (it can only be a belief since I can't substantiate it) that the oracle collapses a wave (the entire IC universe) into particles or the specific answer to our question, due to our observation of a specific question with our attention on those details. It's also like saying we exist as individuals because we are particles of everything. Consciousness itself exists collectively as a wave, but breaks down into our own individual consciousness (along with the mental/emotional conditions it creates) because we are self-conscious beings. Even asking about (observing) relationships is about ones attachment to that person, and therefore still about ones particular self.

Also, we now know that a particle can exist in at least two places at once, which might be equivocal to there being more than one particular answer to ones question simultaneously, not to mention the answer which may be interpreted more than one way without contradiction.

However, these ideas appear to annoy the traditional Yijing scholars more than engaging them.

Yes,the tables are my own figures based on the maths. I wanted to create an overview or birds eye view of the figures and how they all fit together.If all casts had the same probability there would be no need for tables. But lots of groups of casts have the same probability.
I might add some more comments to the charts from time to time depending on feedback.

1/16777216 is a familiar figure.Its the average odds of casting any two six moving liners in a row, coins or yarrow. Its also the chances of getting hexagram 2 with all lines moving, yarrow.Its puzzling that this possibility should be part of the text of H.2, since its so remote. Unless they were using a different method of generation than the current yarrow reconstruction.Hexagram 1 all moving is a bit more plausible : 1/23014.

Twice in a row
Yarrow: I counted the first cast as (1+3+5+7/16)^6= 1/1 and the second as (1^2+3^2+5^2+7^2/16^2)^6= 1/801.2
Coins: 2266 for the lines giving 1/1073.7

Consciousness can affect castings and impact on random events. You could add environment and the weather which is the theme of this anecdote about Wilhelm and the rainmaker :
http://www.onlineclarity.co.uk/friends/showthread.php?16766-the-rain-maker

Hello . . . . If the hexagrams are chosen completely at random (which they are not with most physcial methods), 1/4096 × 1/4096 are the odds of casting a specific hexagram twice in a row, before doing the casting. The odds of casting any hexagram twice in a row are 1/4096. Once you have cast a hexagram, the odds of casting it a second time are again 1/4096.