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martin

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Hi Nigel,

You wrote "All three replies are in fact simply different DESCRIPTIONS of the same outcome - which is what I meant by (quote)"this is a mere ARTEFACT of the notation process"(unquote)."

That's a very interesting philosophical remark.
And perhaps the One sees it that way, I wouldn't know.
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But here on earth, you know, beneath the clouds and under the sun, these 3 throws do not only represent 3 different descriptions of the same outcome. They also represent 3 different ways of PRODUCING the same outcome.
And you don't need to vote Labour to understand that here on earth production is sometimes more important than description, or do you?

If this doesn't ring a bell I leave it to Hilary to explain why it really should ring a bell.
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martin

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Okay, lets put it this way:
Suppose that you and your wife plan to have 2 children.
What is the probability that you get two daughters, assuming that the probabilities for getting a son and a daughter are equal (50%)?

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martin

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Ready?
Now what is the probability that you get a son and a daughter?

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heylise

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Hah, Martin got the big pot of Mailpolish. All colors of the rainbow.

You are wonderful!!

LiSe
 

nigel

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A young monk asked his roshi, ?Master, in this net of illusion, how will I recognise truth??

The roshi snatched some flowers from the wayside, and tossed them into the air high above the monk?s head. When they had fallen to the ground all around the monk, the roshi asked him, ?What do you see now, all around you??

The monk turned this way and that, surveying the flowers from every angle. Then, with consumate certainty, he replied ?Why, two orchids and a lily, master!?

The roshi replied, ?Strange! I see a lily and two orchids.?


Clearly, what is illustrated here, Martin, is a point not of Probability but of Epistemology. The roshi has demonstrated that any and every attempt to distinguish between what you refer to as means of ?production? (whether by nail-varnish, marbles or linear notation) is an arbitrary and subjective imposition of order on a reality which is simply ?there?. Had the roshi added, "An orchid, a lily, and another orchid", he would merely have drawn yet another description of the same reality. By side-stepping this pit-fall, the tetrahedral die, like Occam's Razor, helps us to distinguish the wood from the trees. Time now to move on, perhaps to angels on pinheads . . .
 
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ewald

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Well Nigel, I do think that your tetrahedral die is yet another discription of the reality we are trying to capture here. The closest thing to the real thing is throwing three real coins, if you're talking about the probabilities for three real coins. Not a tetrahedral die.
 

heylise

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Nigel, did you ever in your life throw three coins?
30 times should be enough.

Count the results: how many old, yang, how many old yin, how many yong yang, how many young yin.

LiSe
 

heylise

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Oops, don't count old yang and so. My old is different from yours.

Just count 3 heads or tails, 1 head or tail.

LiSe
 

hilary

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Agreed. You can represent the odds accurately with marbles (or with two tetrahedral dice...), but if you don't naturally think in representations, much less probability-speak, best just to try an experiment. The reality should start to become clear after about 30 throws, like LiSe says.
 

martin

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Thank you for the polish, LiSe. I really look wonderful now.
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