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Outlook for a 2nd Brexit referendum?

Yasmin

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A petition calling for a second referendum has gathered 1M votes in the last 24h, ten times the number required for a debate in Parliament. So we can assume that a debate will take place. But will it lead to a referendum being called?

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...u-referendum-crashes-house-of-commons-website

My question: outlook for a second referendum to be called? 57.5>18. How very interesting... Bad start, good ending, repairing the damage. That is a spot on description of the intention behind the petition. The yi amazes me - so often, it just perfectly describes the current situation. However, I really don't think in this case it predicts an outcome. There must be a number of legal provisions to protect the democratic process!

My take away from all those political casts for my personal use of IC, for everyday life? Rather than trying to get predictions out of IC, I will henceforth focus my questions on shedding light on my dilemmas, and trying to get a useful perspective on my situation. Namaste.
 
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Sixth Relative

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Hi Yasmin

My reading of 57zhi18 would be:

No, there would not be a second Brexit referendum; nevertheless, UK leadership would find a way to correct the rotten situation caused by the results of the one already hold.

Whether that would be not leaving the UE at all or just negotiating a favourable exit treaty is beyond the scope of this answer.
 
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mirian

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A petition calling for a second referendum has gathered 1M votes in the last 24h, ten times the number required for a debate in Parliament. So we can assume that a debate will take place. But will it lead to a referendum being called? !

My take away from all those political casts for my personal use of IC, for everyday life? Rather than trying to get predictions out of IC, I will henceforth focus my questions on shedding light on my dilemmas, and trying to get a useful perspective on my situation. Namaste.

Hi Yasmin,

Yes, given the numbers, the petition has to go through the House of Commons, but the signatures seem vey localised in London in an area where most voters are young people/students, who voted Remain anyway. So far it does not represent the country.

Differently from you I have already asked questions about post-Brexit and got really interesting and precise answers. I will just not post them on the Forum, because it seems to bother others the use of I Ching for big questions such as the destiny of a country or political outcomes. But, personally, I find it that I Ching responds really well and will carry on doing.
 

Yasmin

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I actually believe that IC texts are very relevant to affairs of State. Many hexes are all about managing the Kingdom, and it takes a lot of interpretation to adapt them to personal situations...I find it very useful in trying to make sense of my environment and broader issues that affect me personally- and as a European living in UK, I will be affected by the conditions of Brexit...

With such a big leap into uncertainty, it is tempting for me to resort to IC to try to regain a sense of "control" over my destiny. I suppose my personal take away is to stop trying to predict, and rely on it only to ponder and help me make decisions over which I actually have control.
 

Trojina

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Differently from you I have already asked questions about post-Brexit and got really interesting and precise answers. I will just not post them on the Forum, because it seems to bother others the use of I Ching for big questions such as the destiny of a country or political outcomes. But, personally, I find it that I Ching responds really well and will carry on doing.

If by 'others' you mean me I can assure you it does not bother me at all if you or anyone else asks 'big questions' and posts them on the forum. If you enjoy it and get value from it I don't need to take part in it.

I shouldn't have said anything at all on the other thread. I felt misunderstood to the point where it just wasn't worth explaining anymore. Also I'd said yes I was party pooping and that I'd shut up so having said that there was no point coming back to correct misunderstandings etc etc

I reckon I could explain till I was blue in the face and someone would come along and say 'you don't like big questions' when that hadn't been my point there. All I said was I saw no predictions over there. 39uc was an answer to a question on the lines of 'will UK stay or leave ?'. Well would that be limping in going or limping in staying, it would all depend on a person's on political POV on how it is interpreted. as you can witness in Sixth Relative's interpretation. He is taking the 'rotten' situation as exiting the EU but half the country voted for it so that half wouldn't see that reading that way (if they did the I Ching) they would see the rot as the EU.

As I already said over there so many questions on the same topic had been asked by a number of people that, well, who's prediction shall we pick. And of course each answer could be interpreted differently according to political views. However that really does not mean I object to such threads in any way at all nor that they bother me.


I am a little puzzled as to why people kept on asking for predictions for the referendum. I mean we could all find out soon enough when people had made their minds up and voted, but I'm guessing it's just out of interest ? I also don't really understand what the value is of such prediction. Like over on that thread you said something like 'if I had stuck by my interpretation you would have it in black and white'. But I wouldn't :confused: because with only 2 options if a coin had been tossed there would be the same chance of a correct prediction. Do you want to predict to test Yi or to test yourself, I don't really understand.


But anyway I honestly have no objection at all to such questions and discussion of answers and I think I did party poop on that thread so I'm not going to be party pooping in any other similar political threads right now because I don't at all want to inhibit everyone sharing these readings.

So please do share your readings, I have absolutely no objection and will likely enjoy reading them even with the reservations I have.

I also would prefer not to be answered on this post because then this thread gets derailed again on to my views not the topic in hand and I actually don't want that. I think that is party pooping, making it about me and my views when people do want to discuss political readings. I respect that so please do go ahead.
 

Trojina

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My question: outlook for a second referendum to be called? 57.5>18. How very interesting... Bad start, good ending, repairing the damage. That is a spot on description of the intention behind the petition. The yi amazes me - so often, it just perfectly describes the current situation. However, I really don't think in this case it predicts an outcome. There must be a number of legal provisions to protect the democratic process!

FWIW and despite my reservations ;) this answer does look to me like recounting votes. From Hilary's translation in WikiWing



'Constancy, good fortune: regrets vanish.
Nothing that does not bring harvest.
With no beginning, there is completion.
Before de-husking, three days.
After de-husking, three days.
Good fortune.'

As soon as I see 'husking' it reminds me of re sifting through ballot boxes, re visiting, going over something to refine it and remove corruption which might well describe a second referendum.


Personally I wonder if what might have happened in many cases is that many people in this country half saw themselves as rebels so voted out without thinking too hard about what it would mean for them. They felt safe to vote out because they really thought the remain campaign was bound to win. But now they got what they wanted they wish they had voted to stay. There has been TV coverage of people saying the day after the result they wish they had voted to remain. I find this pretty child like, like they were given ample warning of the consequences. I really didn't want much to vote for the EU but the alternative, Brexit, looks pretty dire if we end up with the worst of the Tories in power ready to undermine the NHS, worker's rights, all kinds of things. Already Boris Johnson has said he's not giving the 'saved' EU money to the NHS after all, so barefaced lies there but what would one expect. Can't say we weren't warned. Having said that it is true Labour has lost the working class vote and working class people especially feel ignored and undermined which is where the feeling of 'wanting our country back' comes from and that is not without foundation either. I'm not talking theory either, (although here is some http://www.theguardian.com/politics...ain-brexit-money-class-inequality-westminster , I see it in real life. No use spouting theory at people who cannot get housing or get to see a dr within a month because of overpopulation. These things affect the working classes far more than the middle classes who can buy their own houses and healthcare, hence Brexit winning.

Anyway 57.5 looks good for a second referendum but I don't think that means there will be one.
 

Sixth Relative

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Whether that would be not leaving the UE at all or just negotiating a favourable exit treaty is beyond the scope of this answer.

I'm not taking exiting the EU as the rotten situation; I did explicitly mention negotiating a favourable exit treaty as one of the different possibly ways to correct the rotten situation.

Asking simply remain/leave in a non-mandatory referendum without a clear path/strategy in case of a leave win, that led to a rotten situation once the leave won: no one knows what is going to happen, not even if there will be actually a formal notification to the UE for leaving; yet division, anxiety and economic/political unrest will rise for the next months.

Carry on with the result won't be easy for any government for multiple geopolitical and economic reasons; disregard the result (even if it was non biding) won't be easy for any government though.
 
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mirian

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My question: outlook for a second referendum to be called? 57.5>18.

I think 57.5 > 18 is more likely to be showing the process of analysing the petition and not the outcome itself. What the petition is actually asking is a change in the legislation, so the minimum vote to win should be 60% so that would invalidate the 1st referendum. But then this is very much like if you don't like the result, change the rules afterwards! That doesn't sound like democracy but there you go.
 

Tohpol

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Yes, I agree with Mirian on 57.5>18.

There's so much to say on this but I guess it's not the forum to do it in depth.

Suffice to say, there is no Brexit without Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty on European Union being signed off. The fact that Cameron didn't immediately send notification as he promised speaks volumes. This is going to trigger a two year negotiation period which will give ample time for a second referendum to be taken seriously. And that will mean a possible exit "contagion" for the Eurocrats to contend with - their worst nightmare. That's where the City of London has its leverage for negotiation with France and Germany who are effectively the main powers behind the EU economic framework. It's a power struggle with the public being used as pawns. That means a stalemate, a dangerous game on so many levels.
 
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mirian

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Couldn't agree more. Political and/or ideological factions with their own agenda have already started the manipulation. Sad times :bows:
 
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iams girl

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I'd guess no to a 2nd referendum because I see both hexagrams more in the light of slow progress and a leader emerging capable of uniting people and facilitating progress.

W/B - these stand out for me...
18 "Work on what has been spoiled has supreme success" (Judgment)
57 "it is the powerful influence of a great personality that uncovers and breaks up those intrigues that shun the light of day" (hexagram commentary)
57.5 "here it is only a matter of reforms" (line 5 commentary)
 

Yasmin

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That makes sense Iams girl. I read somewhere that the only way a 2nd referendum could conceivably be called is in case of a general election victory of a party which specifically promised to hold another referendum. Given the current political crisis, I suppose a new leader who has the stature to reconcile everyone would have to emerge in the context of the next general election...

I would stick to my initial interpretation of 57.5 as a description of the present rather than a prediction. 1) the intention of the signatories of the petition to control what they see as damage 2) perhaps the current government trying to stabilise the markets in the aftermath.
 

Trojina

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Farage himself said he would want a second referendum with a 52/48 vote if Brexit lost http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/nigel-farage-eu-referendum_uk_576e6585e4b08d2c56393f12
so he would be in no position to criticize such a move from the remain lot.

He really did make an utter tit of himself in Brussels yesterday from what I saw. It seems to me the question of a second referendum is far from over. I can't see how, with pretty much half the people in UK, 48% wanting to stay in the EU, we can go with Brexit. So to me 57.5 looks like on going sifting and sorting. Also it is the young who face losing opportunities yet the old carried the vote. There was a big rally in London last night protesting against Brexit and there was a demonstration in another city which according to the TV news was not anti Brexit but anti racism....(plus further demonstrations elsewhere..) People were wanting to signify to immigrants they were welcome. One nasty side effect that has cropped up since Brexit is an increase in racial abuse on the street. This was reported by Channel 4 for the last 2 nights. It seems somehow Brexit has made some people feel as if they are now supported in telling anyone who even appears non British to 'go home'.

I'm not well educated in British politics so I imagine there's much I cannot see yet it seems common sense to me that with such a narrow margin and with less than 75% turnout there has to be a second referendum.....or something https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215. I don't think remainers are settling for Brexit at all. So I stick to my original view more or less.....which is more 'husking'.
 

Yasmin

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Update - two years later, still no agreement on a deal, and increasing calls for a second referendum if a deal can not get approved by Parliament. I think this cast is still playing out, we will have to return to it in another year:)
 
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diamanda

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A petition calling for a second referendum has gathered 1M votes in the last 24h, ten times the number required for a debate in Parliament. So we can assume that a debate will take place. But will it lead to a referendum being called?
outlook for a second referendum to be called? 57.5 > 18
The line speaks of 3 days before, 3 days after, and no beginning but an end. So obviously that petition surge did not lead to a second referendum. I do wonder if the question you had in mind was "will it ever lead in a second referendum?". Because it sounded like you were asking if that increased petition would cause this (which it didn't).

There must be a number of legal provisions to protect the democratic process!
Regardless of where we each stand about this, the democratic process said 'leave'. Now if the losers of the referendum start making a lot of noise with petitions, that still leaves them in the minority, no matter how loudly they petition. The democratic process has been followed so far, and if it continues to be followed properly, then the UK should leave the EU because this is what the majority want.
 

Lavalamp

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Will they be able to stop the Brexit by referendum? 57.5>18
57.5 This describes carrying something through, with good fortune. As Ewald Berkers says:
"Carrying an action through to deal with a difficult situation. This is no problem, one just has to make a start, and keep in mind that this is taking some time. It is important to prepare thoroughly, and to keep a keen eye on it while it's happening. Things go well."

18 means "It's broke so we're fixing it!" this is the context. Which is Brexit, an effort to repair damage to the economy and sovereignty of GB.

I read this no, they will not be able to stop the Brexit. They will be able to influence the policy of how the exit is done (3 days before), and what the trade and other foreign policies are after the Brexit ( 3 days after.) But it will be carried through.

- LL
 

Lavalamp

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I asked Will Great Britain leave the EU (Brexit?)
22.3.4

22.3 Commentary - Confucius/Legge: If he maintains his firm correctness, in the end no one will insult him. Wilhelm/Baynes: The good fortune of constant perseverance cannot, in the end, be put to shame. Blofeld: This implies that, to the very end, no one will thwart our purposes.
DeKorne - You're sitting pretty -- don't blow it!

22.4 Wilhelm/Baynes: Grace or simplicity? A white horse comes as if on wings. He is not a robber, he will woo at the right time. Legge: Because of their separation we might doubt how far line four would remain loyal to line one. Cleary: A white horse runs swiftly. It is not an enemy but a mate.

GB appears in a quick and startling way and one could take them to be enemies or adversaries, in fact GB considers the EU their partners and wishes a close relationship (marriage) and alliance. They will negotiate their terms later (woo at the right time.)

21 Biting through.

This is going to happen - unless there are some major screw ups by political leaders. It is not about xenophobia.

- LL
 

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