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The Method of 64 revisited

Sparhawk

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Thanks to a contribution by a fellow member of this forum, an angel that will remain nameless by her own request, I was able to revive the very interesting "Method of 64" by Francis L. Szot. Mr. Szot, or Ambassador Szot as he liked to be called, as I remember, created this method that combines the hexagram casting immediacy of the 3 coins but preserving the casting odds of the Yarrow Stalk Method. I really like it!

Take a look at the latest post in my blog My Thoughts on Changes or just jump directly to the Method of 64

I think that people that is pondering about casting probabilities, here and in Midaughter's list, could find an interesting angle in this method, not really new but almost forgotten since Mr. Szot's site has been off-line for a couple of years already.

I hope you find this interesting. Let me know.

My thanks go to the kind soul who not only had the right thought of printing a hard copy of the defunct site but also shared it with me. I am now sharing this information with all of you.

Cheers,

Luis
 

pedro

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Luis, thanks for sharing this with us, great stuff as always from you. But I must say Im a bit suspicious of this method (as well as the method of 16), in the sense it may impose a too rigid probability over the outcomes.
Someone please correct me, but when calculating the probabilities for yarrow, the values that are determined are theoretic, not the actual probabilities. I may be mistaken, but to count the successful outcomes vs possible outcomes (to determin the probability), ALL POSSIBLE DIVISIONS of the stalks are taken into account. Even dividing the heap into one stalk in one hand and 48 on the other, which obviously is not going to happen. So the divisions close to the center are more likely than those at the extremes, and I think that is not taken into account in the math (at least thats what I can figure out from Remo Dentato's great site).

That said, I am also a believer that the Yi will find its way around the odds to give us the answer we need, the method being somewhat irrelevant (and this method has the benefit of few moving lines, which is yarrow's main practical benefit), so please dont let me spoil your fun
happy.gif
 

Sparhawk

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Hi Pedro:

I am of the idea that you should use the method that most calls to you. The one that makes you feel most comfortable. For many people, using three coins fits like a glove. A few find other alternate methods fine to use, perhaps like this one. Yet, for many other, like in my case, Yarrow Stalks is "THE" method. IMHO, in the end, it all comes down to one and only one thing: SYNCHRONICITY. You WILL get the answer you are looking for, the moment you request it, no matter what you use to obtain it.

Now, to answer some of your concerns about the method, I have to say that math is math. That's one constant that you can take to the bank. No gray areas in finding accurate probabilities, specially in such a small set as 64 is. The values determined are ACTUAL, not theoretic. If you feel that this method is somewhat rigid, then you must think the same of the Yarrow Stalk method, and even more so of the 3 coins method. Any method used has a fix set of probabilities and that constrain can be seen as rigid. The alternative to mathematical probabilities rigidity of current casting methods is to switch back to burning and cracking turtle shells and/or ox shoulder blade bones. For that, if possible at all, you would need a few supercomputers to calculate where the cracks are going to occur on any given shell or bone. No rigidity of fix probabilities there...

To give you some examples of people that has gone the lenght of calculating this, please visit the following links (only a few of them):

YarrowStalk.com
Steve Marshall's site on Probabilities
Certain comments by Harmen Mesker a few year ago
Ordo Templi Orientis site

Regarding yarrows, as I said before in other threads, in my very own personal opinion, although I cannot logically figure it out, I have to say that there must be a hidden reason for the skewed probabilities of the four different lines. It is precisely this oddity what CALLS ME to use the yarrows. If a method is found that gives you the same probabilities as the yarrow, but the convenience and speed of the coins, I believe it would benefit some people.

Cheers,

Luis
 

cal val

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Pedro...

"That said, I am also a believer that the Yi will find its way around the odds to give us the answer we need, the method being somewhat irrelevant..."

Hallelujah to that.

Cheerio the noo,

Val
 

davidl

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I will definitely try this method. The coins are my preferred method, I find the yarrow sticks a bit confusing but have been looking for a new method to use occasionally, thanks.
 

pedro

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Luis,
I agree with you in every respect, but I think you missed my point. What I meant was that the probabilities for yarrow are not exactly the ones that are determined mathematically. For instance, the prob. of a six is said to be 1 in 16, but that may be wrong, because the calculation takes into account all possible divisions of the stalks, even those that are obviously not gonna happen. So maybe the actual probability is higher than that, but by only using 1 of 16 stones (or 6 of 64), you may be excessively restricting sixes from coming out. Thats what I meant by rigid.

The more I use the stalks, the more I find that it is indeed THE method, like you say. Im actually becoming quite suspicious of coins for actual divination.
 

Sparhawk

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Pedro,

I am glad we agree in most points regarding these postings. Regarding your concern about probabilities, etc., my mathematical knowledge is not enough to refute or clear your concerns in an intelligent manner, so I will let it hang in there and perhaps somebody with a better knowledge can add to what I "feel" is right but cannot argue about without making a fool of myself.

One thing is certain and applies to everybody: If it doesn't feel right, for any reason, do not use it. God knows that I have myself skipped many methods that to me do not feel "correct" but are accepted by many others.

Cheers,

Luis
 

frandoch

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Hi there,

The arguments in favour of one or other of the methods of consulting the Yi are based on statistical probabilities, and there is no doubt that each method produces different probabilities of getting 'changing lines', and therefore different Related Hexagrams.

But calculations of probabilities are based on very high numbers of events, so that if we cast the coins, say, 800 times we would expect to get about 100 6's, 100 9's, and 300 of each of 7's and 8's. But this only applies to RANDOM events, and if we believe in the Yi, then the casting is not random - the way the coins fall is not a chance event, so probability theory cannot be applied to this process.

My advice would be to forget about probabilities and use the method that feels right for you. If you believe suffuciently in the power of the Yi to use it, then you must surely accept that it will answer you whatever method you use.

Michael (Frandoch)
 

pedro

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Luis, here is a quote from the 1st link you provide above that seems to agree with what Im saying:
"In practice, an experienced hand will not achieve these probabilities, for the reason described above. In avoiding the very unequal divisions, a small advantage is gained to the remainder 8 and its score 2, and so the expectation of a 6 line, old yin, will be a bit larger than 1/16."

So this method may reduce the frequency of sixes even more than yarrow.

Michael, Re: random events and probabilities, I agree with what you're saying. But the method one chooses does influence the responses from the oracle, in the sense it will use different images to tell you the same. The Yi is independent of the method one uses to cast it, but some methods make some hexagram changes much unlikely. Not to say they wont ever come out, but they wont as often, and that is apparent from just analyzing the number of sixes one gets with coins vs stalks. I still get my answers from one method or the other, but they sense differently.

But yes, guys, I too am a firm believer that each person should use what works and feels good for her. And I do think this method is one of the best alternatives, if one is looking for one.
 

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