Possible War Scenario — 44 UC

[Blissful-mir]

Hello, I’ve been learning from this forum for years and it’s a first time I decided to ask for help.

I’m Ukrainian and recently me and my partner decided that it’s better be safe than sorry and left the country in case there’s going to be some real invasion from Russia as it is reported by western media.

Right now things seem to gett better and my friends were asking if we going to come back in February.

So I asked I Ching:

What is Russia is going to do towards my country — 44 uc.

And then I asked again (even though I know yes/no questions are a bad thing to ask):


Would we be able to come home safely in the beginning of March as we planned?

36 UC.

The reading seems pretty obvious to me (and pessimistic) but maybe you have different experiences with 44UC or 36?

please, share your thoughts

and thank you in advance

 

[rosada]

What is Russia going to do towards my country?
44. Coupling describes someone whose intentions cannot be trusted.
You received this hexagram without change lines so perhaps this means Russia will not do anything - for now - but the feeling is that you are dealing with "someone" who has ulterior motives.

Would we be able to come home safely the beginning of March as we planned?
36. Brightness Hidden says one is able to be constant even in situations where there is hardship. I see this as meaning it would be better for you to not return so soon even if it is a hardship to stay away longer. That or perhaps it is saying that if you did come home the dangers would still be there and you should be aware of what that might mean.

I am so sorry you are having to go through this.

 

[marybluesky]

Hello;

44 shows an uncontrollable force, the intent to invade here. However that's unchanging, hence the text writes: don't take this woman. Hard to say. I slightly tend to take it as no action despite the rage.

36 can indicate injury, but also something hidden. The countries aren't in good terms anyway. Maybe even if you go back home safely, there's no guaranty for future safety, the tension is there.

 

[BaronAsh]

Hello, I’ve been learning from this forum for years and it’s a first time I decided to ask for help.

I’m Ukrainian and recently me and my partner decided that it’s better be safe than sorry and left the country in case there’s going to be some real invasion from Russia as it is reported by western media.

Right now things seem to gett better and my friends were asking if we going to come back in February.

So I asked I Ching:

What is Russia is going to do towards my country — 44 uc.

And then I asked again (even though I know yes/no questions are a bad thing to ask):


Would we be able to come home safely in the beginning of March as we planned?

36 UC.

The reading seems pretty obvious to me (and pessimistic) but maybe you have different experiences with 44UC or 36?

please, share your thoughts

and thank you in advance

Yes, looks pretty bad!
44 is a bad power configuration with the one yin line at the bottom governing all five yang lines above and the yin line going away from (falling) those same yang lines (rising).
The Jou Tsung Hwa Yi says:

1. This is a May hexagram. It is good in fall, bad in spring, maybe sick in summer and having arguments and trouble in winter.
2. One Yin Yao grows on the bottom to govern five Yang Yaos. It is a Yin hexagram.


Wilhelm suggest that although things might look alright now, later on something bad is going to erupt from below. "This hexagram indicates a situation in which the principle of darkness, after having been eliminated, furtively and unexpectedly obtrudes again from within and below."

Interestingly, the Yi seems to be suggesting that the problem is internal within Ukraine rather than involving an invasion from outside. Russia has been openly mocking the Western media and US govt for predicting an invasion and asking them for the dates so they can go on holiday then! Donbass has been begging to join Russia but Russia has refused because (it is my understanding quite possibly incorrect) they want and need a buffer state between them and the hostile US-allied NATO configuration run by 'neocons' in the US and internationally. They will probably only invade if the US persuades Ukraine to join NATO (which they have recently agreed in talks with Russia NOT to do for the foreseeable future) or they agree to station large numbers of US troops and/or missiles close to the Russian border (which is why Russia prefers Donbass to remain a buffer region). If Ukraine-US push their luck in Donbass (by invading it, probably with the narrative that they are defending it against a Russian attack) thereby undermining its buffer zone function (from Russia's point of view), THEN Russia might 'invade' in order to repel such a NATO inspired advance by Ukraine into Donbass in order to prevent NATO from stationing troops and/or missiles on that new border with Russia.

So it's really up to Ukraine what to do, either make a move on Donbass, or strengthen military ties with US-NATO, or maintain a more neutral posture. Given that Kiev is the mother of both Belorus and Russia (originally the country around Kiev was called Kievan Rus), Ukraine is clearly more aligned culturally with Eastern Europe and especially Russia than with France, Spain and UK for example. Ukraine is a politically and militarily weak or minor power in comparison to Russia or USA and is being manipulated by the latter to stir up trouble for the former. The Yi seems to be indicating that developments inside Ukraine will be stirring up trouble this year. Ukraine would be the weak Yin line at the bottom in charge of the whole dynamic. So what happens will be determined by what she decides, though of course the internal political dynamic within Ukraine right now is quite confused, chaotic, unstable and possibly dangerous.

36 isn't all that positive either, obviously. If you do go back to Ukraine, most likely best to 'hide your light,' i.e. lay low. If your life or business involves lots of exposure to or tricky negotiations with governments or corporations, probably not so good to return. But if you are relatively small and invisible and not too close to any significant areas (like Donbass border!), you might be alright.

The Jou Tsung Hwa Yi says of 36, Mingyi':

The image is the phoenix flying, but with drooping wings.
The symbol is leaving the light and entering into darkness.
Mingyi': In bad times it is favorable to be persevering.
1. This is an August hexagram. It is good in winter, bad in summer and fall.
2. Your energies are so intense that, when directed outward they can make your dream come true.
3. Mingyi' is Youhun hexagram of Shi or Army
4. If a patient consults the I Ching and gets mingyi', it is a very dangerous condition, needing great care.

That said, if you have already left, perhaps your business or family ties are not that strong already? In which case, maybe best to avoid at this time. However, if you do have strong ties and wish to remain in your country, with great perseverance it can be done as indicated in Point #2 above. If you do not feel inclined to arouse that level of perseverance in the face of hard times, then perhaps best to avoid altogether.

Best of luck!

PS.: as to experience with the hexagrams, I will always remember back in 1992 throwing #44 about a real estate project. I was a senior member of a European Buddhist foundation which had been searching for a land center for over 10 years. (Basically the French and the Germans could never agree on a property!) Finally we found this fantastic chateau near Chinon only 1.5 hours from Paris with 175 bedrooms, dining for 250, dormitories for 100 men and 100 women in external buildings, two large guest houses for staff housing another 30, a pigonniere, a lovely chestnut-lined walk and all the rooms had been fully renovated because it was owned by the Latvian government in exile and Latvians from all over the world had been coming there for decades to learn their history but also take workshops in renovating old buildings in anticipations of getting their country back. Well, they did get it back which is why they were now selling this property. But there was one eentsy-weentsy-teeny-tiny catch: there was a nuclear power station only 20 miles away. It was scheduled to be closed in three years (which happened without incident) but that was too much for our Green Germans who simply refused to even look at the property even though the whole thing was available - fully renovated and in perfect condition - for the price of a two bedroom apartment in Paris (EU 750,000). So that's my #44 story!

 

[marybluesky]

Unfortunately the war began.
I'd like to express my solidarity.

 

[BaronAsh]

Unfortunately the war began.
I'd like to express my solidarity.

Well, my take was sure wrong! Except that the notion that the weak line in 44 is the source of trouble and Ukraine is the weaker player in what is essentially a multinational event involving USA, EU, NATO, China, Germany, Poland, Russia, now Sweden and Finland and so on. But I thought since the weaker line was the leader of the hexagram (being the only broken line) this indicated that invasion by Russia was unlikely. Boy was that wrong!

Now Russia is insisting that although invading they have no intention of occupying once they have toppled the current regime which they regard as illegitimate (born of color revolutions etc.) but this is most likely a distinction without a difference. We'll just have to see. Right now they are conducting stunning but also what are called 'low-grade' military operations, i.e. they are not doing 'Shock and Awe' monster bombardments like the US did in Baghdad, nor extensive fire bombings like the UK did to Hamburg residents in the 1940's killing over 20,000 a night on some raids. Rather it seems these are largely targeted attacks designed to bring down the regime and their ability to mount attacks in Russia and Donbass their new protectorate. In a way, it is a huge punch in the nose. So I suspect it will be short in duration and then a new phase will quickly emerge. But this is just news commentary and not Yi reading except insofar as to say again that Ukraine is clearly the weaker player in all this and also the locus of the disruption which is threatening to bring the whole world into greater chaos and dysfunction than the pandemic has already been doing and as such the weak line in the Hexagram 44 situation.

 

[hilary]

It's worth noting that the Yi itself does not describe the first line of 44 as 'weak'. On the contrary, the oracle text speaks of a 'powerful woman' who is not to be married - a force that cannot be part of a lasting, working relationship.

These were two very clear readings. What will Russia do? Russia will 'Come to Meet' (Wilhelm's name for 44.) The yin line will invade, destabilise. From that I might have 'hoped' for subversion of the democratically elected government rather than invasion, but it certainly fits invasion.

And Hexagram 36.... yes, I advise against yes/no questions because it can be hard to see which 'real' question it's answering - in this instance, is it answering 'What if we go back?' or 'What should we do?' But Ming Yi, with its two translations, answers both: 'What if we go back?' 'Brightness Wounded'; 'What should we do?' 'Hide Brightness'.

I hope Blissful-mir stayed safe.

 

[BaronAsh]

It's worth noting that the Yi itself does not describe the first line of 44 as 'weak'. On the contrary, the oracle text speaks of a 'powerful woman' who is not to be married - a force that cannot be part of a lasting, working relationship.

These were two very clear readings. What will Russia do? Russia will 'Come to Meet' (Wilhelm's name for 44.) The yin line will invade, destabilise. From that I might have 'hoped' for subversion of the democratically elected government rather than invasion, but it certainly fits invasion.

And Hexagram 36.... yes, I advise against yes/no questions because it can be hard to see which 'real' question it's answering - in this instance, is it answering 'What if we go back?' or 'What should we do?' But Ming Yi, with its two translations, answers both: 'What if we go back?' 'Brightness Wounded'; 'What should we do?' 'Hide Brightness'.

I hope Blissful-mir stayed safe.

Your take is, unsurprisingly, much clearer, especially since things have changed considerably since a few days ago. My take on the 'weak line' business probably comes from Wilhelm's " The inferior thing seems so harmless and inviting that a man delights in it; it looks so small and weak that he imagines he may dally with it and come to no harm." The intruding from below element is powerful because it is the only yin line and thus rules the hexagram. But it rules from an inferior, lower (and thus often can be regarded as 'weaker') position, which is also the usual relative relationship given between a yin and yang line using traditional dominant-submissive dynamic (which of course is politically incorrect viz gender relations today in the West). In any case, when lower rules upper, this is clearly not an ideal, nor therefore favorable, configuration though the lower in this configuration is clearly very powerful.

I find it hard to regard the Russian Bear as the weaker, lower element intruding from below in this situation, although clearly they are intruding from the South and East so maybe that is good enough? The Russians have been arguing - for over a decade now - that NATO is continuously intruding whilst Ukraine has been continuously encroaching on Donbas despite having agreed not to continue doing so, so that is a similar (they are intruding) perspective the Russians could be having on their part. To both sides, the other is the intruding powerful element in #44.

Which is probably as good a way as any of explaining why things have come to this point, neither side being willing to give to the other any further and so now it comes to action not words. 14,000 have been killed in Donbass the past eight years. The good news (if one can call it that) is that thus far this week only about 200 civilians killed in Ukraine (as of Sat AM reports in Western press) though no doubt more military casualties on both sides. But still - thus far - not a complete bloodbath (relatively speaking) and hopefully it will soon be over and they can come to a mutually non-belligerent agreement that sticks this time if both sides adhere to its terms. Russia is demanding Ukraine be demilitarized (like Austria for example) and never join NATO. If that is too much to ask, then the conflict will continue, rightly or wrongly and, tragically, might expand beyond Ukraine's borders which their (understandable but probably misguided) refusal to surrender makes increasingly likely each and every day this continues.

 

[hilary]

Your take is, unsurprisingly, much clearer, especially since things have changed considerably since a few days ago.

It's true any reading gets clearer with hindsight! But Mary and Rosada were pretty close to the mark. (Note: 'unchanging hexagram' does not mean 'nothing happens'...)

My take on the 'weak line' business probably comes from Wilhelm's " The inferior thing seems so harmless and inviting that a man delights in it; it looks so small and weak that he imagines he may dally with it and come to no harm." The intruding from below element is powerful because it is the only yin line and thus rules the hexagram. But it rules from an inferior, lower (and thus often can be regarded as 'weaker') position, which is also the usual relative relationship given between a yin and yang line using traditional dominant-submissive dynamic (which of course is politically incorrect viz gender relations today in the West). In any case, when lower rules upper, this is clearly not an ideal, nor therefore favorable, configuration though the lower in this configuration is clearly very powerful.

Lots of things at work here...

Wilhelm's commentary is Wilhelm's commentary. Worthy of respect in its own right, but not what the Yi says; not the answer to the question.

Wilhelm only said that line 1 looked 'small and weak', not that it was.

We're starting to assume here that 'powerful woman' = line 1, which is certainly one way you can read the hexagram shape. Another would be to see the whole trigram picture that way: the inner trigram xun reinforced with all the power of heaven.

About yin/yang and gender relations, there's some good discussion on the 'I Ching and female' thread.