Inspired by Tim's thread on Belarus, here is a political issue I have no interest in,
which could be a good opportunity for anyone interested to hone our political
prediction skills.

The second most popular (at the moment) political party in Greece, "New
Democracy", are going to vote for a new leader of their party on 22 November.
There are four candidates.
I asked the same question about each of them.

Will E.M. be the new leader? 63.1.6 > 53
Will A.G. be the new leader? 57.3 > 59
Will A.T. be the new leader? 27.2 > 41
Will K.M. be the new leader? 56.1.2.3 > 38

Here's my take on them.

Will E.M. be the new leader? 63.1.6 > 53 - YES, it will happen (63) and things progress smoothly (53)
Will A.G. be the new leader? 57.3 > 59 - NO, 57.3 says unstable and misfortune, and 59 dispersion
Will A.T. be the new leader? 27.2 > 41 - NOT this time ('advance inauspicious')
Will K.M. be the new leader? 56.1.2.3 > 38 - NO, he's too arrogant and alienates people

Anyone care to have a guess? We'll all find out in November.

63.1.6 He will fail at the end of voting [63.1].
He doesn't have enough weight and authority, he needs to improve first [53].
No.
--

57.3 → 59 (Dispersing), Legge:
Shows its subject penetrating (only) by violent and repeated efforts.
There will be occasion for regret.
He is too aggressive perhaps? Or unstable in his views, couldn't decide what to pursue.
No.
--

27.2 → 41 (Decreasing), Wilhelm: Turning to the summit for nourishment,
Deviating from the path to seek nourishment from the hill.
Continuing to do this brings misfortune.
Maybe yes, he will win by support from some powerful forces above [political/financial influential people].

--
56.1.2.3 → 38

56.2 does promise temporary victory. Maybe he will win but after some time (full term or only part of it) he will be asked to leave.
--

Is there a possibility of new candidate joining the race?

Oh dear, thanks for pointing out the error of 41/42 Tim! I've corrected it now.
I wonder, how come you believe that the 27.2 > 41 guy will win?
I personnaly can't see anything positive there but maybe I'm missing something.

No there isn't any possibility that another candidate will join, they've closed the applications.

About 27.2 - I looked at Wilhelm's commentary

Normally a person either provides his own means of nourishment or is supported in a proper way by those whose duty of privilege it is to provide for him. If, owing to weakness of spirit, a man cannot support himself, a feeling of uneasiness comes over him; this is because in shirking the proper way of obtaining a living, he accepts support as a favor from those in higher place. This is unworthy, for he is deviating from his true nature. Kept up indefinitely, this course leads to misfortune.
Maybe he will be exposed later, but he'll get the support.

First update

So here is a first update on this.
This event was supposed to happen in November, but it got postponed.
The new leader elections of that party took place on Sunday 10 December.

None of the 4 candidates got more than 50%.
Which means that there will be repeat elections (on 10 January) between the two first candidates only.

Here are the results they got at this round - largest percentage first, together with original cast/guess
(the percentage that each candidate got is in bold red)

Will E.M. be the new leader? 63.1.6 > 53 - YES, it will happen (63) and things progress smoothly (53) - 39,8%
Will K.M. be the new leader? 56.1.2.3 > 38 - NO, he's too arrogant and alienates people - 28,5%
Will A.T. be the new leader? 27.2 > 41 - NOT this time ('advance inauspicious') - 20,3%
Will A.G. be the new leader? 57.3 > 59 - NO, 57.3 says unstable and misfortune, and 59 dispersion - 11,4%

Click to expand...

I will not attempt a new cast to see who of the two first ones will win the next round.
Just for argument's sake, I'll go with this original cast and guess that the first candidate will win.
But please feel free anyone who fancies trying a new cast for the next round.

Final update

I will not attempt a new cast

Click to expand...

Well, I should have, and I should have been more careful to remember my exact first overall question!
Which was "Who of these 4 will be the new leader of New Democracy?".
The original cast was valid - the first guy (EM) won out of the four.

But when it came to "who of these two will be the new leader", the original cast proved to be invalid.
As it was the second guy (KM) who won the duel!
Lesson learned

Interesting thread Diamanda. I know it's a few months old, but came across it by chance. I wonder if the winner really did turn out to be arrogant and to alienate people... Who knows, the initial cast could still be valid in the long run, after all 53 is slooooow to develop...

I see this as an interesting example of an unchanging hexagram indicating no change.

63. After Completion (of the first ballot) EM makes
53.uc Progress (to the next round) (but no further)

63.1 Could be indicating he wouldn't have the support to get over 50% and 63.6 that ultimately he couldn't win.

K.M. got 38.uc for their second hexagram - in hindsight perhaps this could be said to indicate the tie with E.M.: two siblings tied together.

yasmin said:

I wonder if the winner really did turn out to be arrogant and to alienate people...

Click to expand...

He's certainly arrogant, a bit like a spoiled child - but I don't know yet if he alienates voters, as there hasn't been any voting battle so far (since then). I'll keep an eye on him and update if further data becomes available!

Hi diamanda


I do a lot analysis of political and international relations issues based on Yijing (my blog is only in Spanish, though). When it comes to elections, I've learn how important is to make a distinction between a) gaining more votes, b) winning the election and c) taking office. Two examples: Al Gore won more votes than GW Bush, but he didn't won the election; the Spanish party Partido Popular won the 2015 election but couldn't form a government.

If you keep that distinction in mind, from a text-based perspective using the Judgment as focus:

63zhi53 points to a process where the beginning is good (first round of voting) but ultimately is bad (second round of voting)

56zhi38 points to a process where the beginning is not so good but it is not bad (first round of voting) but with persistence the final result is pretty good (second round of voting).

Of course, it's easy to see the first/second rounds after the outcome; before the voting day it wouldn't be so easy to guess a second round of voting. But even without that assesment of second round, the comparison would show a process from good to bad on the one hand and another process from medium to good on the other.


Now, from a Wen Wang Gua perspective

63zhi53: the subject line (the candidate) is water and the Office line (power, his chance to take office) is earth. Earth destroys water. Line 1 changes from wood to earth, so another earth line; line 6 changes from water to wood, wood reduces the original water... therefore, there are people supporting the candidate but that support would be reduced over time.

56zhi38. 56 is a total combination hexagram; when asking yes/no questions, it means yes; when asking if something is going to happen, it means there is hope for it to happen. The subject line is earth, the office line is water but it is hidden under a metal line... therefore, power (the possibility to take office) would be as hidden from him, but eventually will come out of hide (since metal produces water).

This is why, for predictive questions, I prefer WWG.

I hope this could be interesting for you.

Yes definitely very interesting, thanks for the analysis Sixth Relative. Great point also that getting votes is not the same as winning or taking office (many weird things happen in elections as you say...). Very useful to specify the question with precision.

Interesting discussion!
I would see 63.1.6 as a short cycle of completion. 63.1 good start, 63.6 overwhelmed by opponent. But I see 53 as the context, that this candidate is still developing. He may have lost that cycle, but could still make a come back at future elections.

Meanwhile, the winner got 56, transient, passing through, culminating with the dreaded 56.3 which does not bode well, especially for a politician!. And In a context of 38, "not on same wavelength". I would not have given him for a winner based on that casting, Although he was elected, maybe the cast has not yet played out completely. He may still go through 56.3 at a later stage and lose the next election, or even be forced to step down before that.

Anyway. Good IC practice, because it's not as emotional as personal problems