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lagunader

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today I consulted three different I ching computer divination sites, asking the same exact question...
what are the odds of having the exact same hexagram with no changing line on all three!
but that's what happened...I am still shaking!
 

stevev

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3.0 x 1.618E64 - 1 ...

or is that + 1

a Golden Ratio at a Golden Dawn

or in a less technical sense that's 3 point zero apples times a full bowl of dog food.
 

Trojina

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:eek: wow that is amazing Lagunader. It happens very occasionally for me throwing the coins (and that is for different questions) but seems more incredible using the computer. Do you feel well satisfied with your answer ? Whatever the question was the answer must be pretty emphatic !
 

lagunader

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I always preferred the coins, still do, I feel more connected, but over time am becoming less sckeptical about the computer... It is easier but I hope I don't abuse the privilege of asking over and over! It gets tempting.
 

bradford

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The odds are complex cuz different configurations have different probabilities
because 7's & 8's are more likely (and coins are different than stalks, too).
1 / 262,144 are the average odds for getting the same reading three times.
If you did a daily reading, the odds are you'd get a triple every 718 years.
but it's going to be somewhat less stacked than this for simple hexagrams.
 

stevev

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I haven't used any manual method for years

lagunader said:
I always preferred the coins, still do, I feel more connected, but over time am becoming less sckeptical about the computer... It is easier but I hope I don't abuse the privilege of asking over and over! It gets tempting.

I only use computer programs, mainly my own but I have tested out most I have found and I don't find any difference in the connection to the IChing.

The "Mandate of Heaven" describes how the ancients consulted the oracle multiple time and put each question in the positive and negative sense as well.

It also explains that the judgment of hexagram 4

"It is not I who seek the young fool,
The young fool seeks me.
At the first oracle I inform him.
If he asks two or three times, it is importunity.
If he importunes, I give him no information."

"must therfore refer to a much more serious withdrawal of co-operation from the oracle, and for a far more substantial reason than simply repeating a question."

 
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dobro p

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There are 450 variables in the Yi. So, if my high school math teacher was telling me the truth, then the odds of drawing the same hex with no changing lines three times in a row is 1 in 450 X 450 X 450 = 1 in 91,125,00. So high as to not be a coincidence, in other words. The thing that amazes me most about this is that this sort of thing only happens to some people some of the time. It's as if the Yi's saying: "Okay, gonna believe that it works *now*?"
 

Trojina

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stevev said:
The "Mandate of Heaven" describes how the ancients consulted the oracle multiple time and put each question in the positive and negative sense as well.

It also explains that the judgment of hexagram 4

"It is not I who seek the young fool,
The young fool seeks me.
At the first oracle I inform him.
If he asks two or three times, it is importunity.
If he importunes, I give him no information."

"must therfore refer to a much more serious withdrawal of co-operation from the oracle, and for a far more substantial reason than simply repeating a question."



Thats interesting, I've never seen that stated before. Makes sense when you come to think about it too.
 

willowfox

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Hi dobro,

How do you get 450?

I thought it was 64 x 6 = 384?
 

autumn

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384 changing lines+64 each hexagram unchanging=448. Maybe the other 2 variables are hexagrams 1 and 2 with all changing lines?
 

heylise

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Same thing happened to me and a friend. We both asked the exact same question about a matter which concerned both of us. And with the same reason you did: figuring out if an online oracle was good or not. I asked it in a program in my own computer (Sanshan), and then we both asked online. All three times hex. 34 no lines.

The oracle was no good BTW. It had a very good way of throwing the coins, but got all old and young lines reversed. Not a fault of the oracle but of the maker. But I could see what it 'really' answered.

LiSe
 

ewald

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There are 4096 different readings possible:
Each line you throw has 4 possibilities, namely yin - yang - changing yin - changing yang.
With 6 lines, that is 4^6 = 4096 (or 4 * 4 * 4 * 4 * 4 * 4).
 

martin

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This is a bit misleading. When I predict "I will now throw the same hex with the same changing lines 3 times in a row" and then indeed do it, okay, wow! :)
But without a prediction ... there must be many millions who consult the oracle in this year 2006. So it happens occasionally to one or a few people that they throw the same answer 3 times in a row. Nothing special. It only feels special because it happens to you. But it must happen to somebody .. :)
 

lagunader

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Martin

Are you saying it doesn't mean much...meaningless coincidence?
 

martin

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Well, no, I was just looking at it from the 'cold' perspective of probability theory because others were doing all these calculations.
From that perspective it is not special but I think it is highly significant if an oracle gives the same answer 3 times in a row.
It is not a meaningless coincidence.
So there are two perspectives, two ways of looking at it. And perhaps the best thing to do is to keep these two seperated.
 

lagunader

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Hi Martin

The funny thing is I had no intention of testing the computer and its accuracy, I asked the question as second time because of "high anxiety ", afterwards when I got the same hexagram, I thought to myself "yeh right, what a coincidence" so I went ahead with the
third try and got blown away. Just like Dobro had said, it is like IT is saying to me
"now what, you still don't believe", If felt like someone else was in the room! Like all of us, we can go thru weeks of repetitive hexagram now and then,but this really shook me up and I had to share it.
 

autumn

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But if you were to find that this happened in response to one question being asked for more than one person consistently, you would find a very low p. It is statistically an unlikely event according to chance.
 

martin

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I had a similar experience when I was still very new to the I Ching. In a critical situation I kept asking the same question again and again and got the same hexagram (43, very appropriate) four times in a row. The answers were not exactly the same, the lines were different, but after this 'coincidence' I took the I Ching much more serious than I had done till then. There must be something in it if it does such things! :)
 

jte

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In a way if we use the Yi at all and accept that its random responses are also relevant resopnses, we shouldn't be surprised when stuff like this happens, no?

I don't think we should *expect* it to happen, but it should be easy to accept when it does...

My two cents,

- Jeff
 

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