the odds of getting the same answer

[moss elk]

Hi all.

Any math folks in the house please chime in if I've made an error.

Odds of getting a particular answer:
1 in 4096
Odds of getting the exact same answer to the same question:
1 in 16,777,216 (4096 × 4096)
Same q/a 3 times:
1 in 68,719,476,736 (4096×4096×4096)
Same q/a 4 times: (4096×4096×4096×4096)
2.81474977 x 10 to the 14th power.

 

[jzy369]

Yes, the calculation is correct to me. Did you experience multiple consecutive same answers?

 

[moss elk]

Yes, recently over a period of four months I asked the same question (Because I did not, but sincerely wanted to understand) about the same subject four times. (About once per month)
And received 17.5 each time. The fourth time, I remember thinking before I looked at the hexagram,
"Yi is going to say it again" and it did.

Honestly, I was expecting 4 unchanging.
I have noticed sometimes the answers are gentle.

 

[butterfly spider]

I have always puzzled over the maths in this. This makes sense thank you. I have had the same hexagram and changing lines for the same question and I have always wondered. Only rarely have I had it a third time


However I have often wondered about the mathematical probability of the changing hexagram - even though the casting is different to the same question the changing hexagram is the same. I have had this experience with movement to hex 63. Whatever the casting sure enough it would change to 63.

Just a thought - I am not a a mathematician

 

[bradford]

I think you have to consider that the odds of getting "the same answer" the first time are 100%, so the odds against getting it the second time are only going to average 4096 to one. The word average is used because because odds vary depending on the number of changing lines and the method used.

 

[moss elk]

I think you have to consider that the odds of getting "the same answer" the first time are 100%, so the odds against getting it the second time are only going to average 4096 to one. The word average is used because because odds vary depending on the number of changing lines and the method used.

Yes, the 100 % thing. I guess that is what was on my mind.

Odds schmods. It isn't random.

 

[butterfly spider]

I also wondered about the chances of getting the same castings as someone else. I have asked 6 questions on various random topics since joining - and the same person on the site not only has the same reading - with changing lines - but has asked questions that are very very similar in their quest. They are not all recent postings. Obviously the castings relate to specific individual situations but to get exactly the same for almost identical questions from exactly the same person must be statistically quite low.
Just a thought ...

 

[butterfly spider]

Or is it statistically high - but you know what I am implying ?