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How the first Hexagram evolves to the second?

R

rosada

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It has been my understanding that the change lines indicate the change coming which will then lead to the situation discribed by the second hexagram. But I am unclear as to whether the I Ching is saying the second hexagram MAY manefest or WILL manefest. i am particularly thinking about negative change lines where the seeker is warned something is not good. If they follow the warning and desist, will that mean the condition predicted by the second hexagram will not manefest? Or is hexagram 2 what will happen but only if the warning is heeded?

For example, the question was asked whether Bush would be able to recover from his recent poor political ratings. The answer was 16.1.5>24. Enthusiasm/Returning. This certainly sounds like he will, but the first change line is puzzling. 16.1 talks about Enthusiasm that is boastful bringing misfortune. This has been interpreted as indicating that the aides who have gone overboard in Bush's name have brought misfortune. But it doesn't say Bush should fire them, in fact, it doesn't suggest any course of action.
So - would you read from this that although it is unfortunate that Bush has these overly confident helpers, still they and those of a similar mindset make up his voter base and by doing nothing, no firings, he will Return to popularity? Or would you read it that if he must recognize and subdue this element if he would then Return to popularity?

Rosada
 

bradford_h

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Rosada-
The Zhi or destination gua is the direction the change is currently headed. But what path doesn't twist and turn? If you are currently headed South, that doesn't mean you are going to Antactica, only in that direction for now.
 
M

micheline

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Rosada, thats a pretty apt reading regarding Bush, and it isnt a black and white issue...

the reading tends to show that Bush was overly sure of himself at first, but now has a lot of pressure on him....this causes him to keep his "enthusiasm" in check... because of all this, he may return to the kind of safe political maneuvering which gained him a following to begin with. "constant illness, no death" means that the pressure will continue, but that could be a good thing for his desire to regain the political support.

BUt, as Brad says, .. who knows what twists and turns lie ahead?
 

cal val

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Rosada...

Thanks for pointing this out for those who rarely or never make it to Hilary's blog. There's a very interesting internet conversation surrounding this reading by Sam Crane, and she recently tied into the conversation.

http://onlineclarity.co.uk/answers/2005/10/30/friday-i-ching-from-uselesstree-bush-will-rebound/

16.1.4 changes to 24. I made the same mistake with 16 on a thread I started yesterday, and I'd better go fix it! I said 16.4 and I meant 16.5.

Love,

Val
 

timinok

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Might the difficulty in interpreting have to do with the question being phrased as seeking a sort of yes/no response? I find readings a bit easier to make sense of when the question is open-ended, but acknowlege that I might be taking it a bit literally.

Considering the reading as a progression of changes [with thanks, IIRC, to Bradford for suggesting this approach in his writings, lay the smacketh down if I'm wrong]:

16.1 > 51 (Thunder), and applying the changing 4th line,
51.4 > 24

I see boastfulness leading to taking action-- and the action (in 51.4) causing him to become further mired, the end (24) being a concerted attempt to recover popularity for his party (being in his 2nd term, he's a lame duck incumbent), once he/his people realize how they're only digging themselves deeper into the unpopularity hole.

Granted, I'm interpreting this more as Bush's experience in trying to regain popularity, than as a portent of how his ratings will actually fare. Considering 16.4 (gathering supporters as a hair clasp gathers hair), it seems he could have some success eventually.

And to your first question, Rosada, I think we can choose to avoid the bad stuff when we see it coming.
 
R

rosada

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Thank you all for these insights (and for catching the typo, Val!).
 
R

rosada

Guest
I note that Bush is emphasizing that back at the start of the Iraq war he had a huge mandate from both parties. Perhaps this is 16.1 - everybody in Washington who wanted to be seen as doing the politically correct thing - both Republican and Democrat - voted to support the war. This premature enthusiasm supported Bush and perhaps Bush can use that argument to his advantage.

Interesting Bush made this speach on Veteran's Day - the day we show Enthusiasm for Armies?
 

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