This escalation between NATO and Russia. Where are things heading? 28.5

[Daeluin]

Russia/Putin has mobilized 300,000 out of 2m reservists. Mobilization is only supposed to happen in defense of Russia, so Putin has approved official annexation of Ukrainian land and calling Ukraine's defense (and its support by the West) an attack on Russia and crossing the line.

This is a major escalation, considering Russia has largely denied anything is happening but a special operation for a long time. Notably, an hour or so before the recorded announcement was broadcast, all NATO planes in the UKR region went dark. There seems to be increasing tensions between not just Ukraine and Russia, but NATO and Russia.

Given this significant escalation between NATO and Russia, there seem to be various possibilities. First, despite mobilization it seems Russia is running low on equipment and trained soldiers, so this may be seen as an act of desperation more than a serious threat. Perhaps it will backfire, in more ways than one. There is still the concern of nuclear aggression as well, and here Putin could be posturing to use such weapons as a defensive measure. The more cornered he becomes, the more limited the options and desperate the actions. Meanwhile NATO seems to be taking the threat regarding this escalation seriously. As of yet we don't know what that means, but things seem to be different now.

Where are things headed?

877798

28.5

 

[breakmov]

hello Daeluin

This escalation between NATO and Russia. Where are things heading? 28.5​

"a "forward escape strategy" on the part of russia with its former army force (reservists; withered willow ) to be called into a new "flowery movement" to add to this war "

breakmov

 

[rosada]

"Reservists = withered willow" - good connect!

28.5 changing to 32. Duration suggests to me that the move shows the war continuing but not necessarily escalating. But on the other hand hex. 32 is made up of wind and thunder so perhaps it does...

 

[Daeluin]

I've been mulling over this since I made the thread yesterday.

The Forest of Changes (see my signature) suggests each line (except 3 and 6), when changed has an opposite outcome of what is advised in the yi. It rather makes sense, as Liu Yiming's commentary (in Thomas Cleary's The Taoist I-Ching), says that when yang energy is too strong and yin is too weak, then any culmination of yin or yang leads to excess that threatens the breaking of the ridgepole. So for each line it appears to me the advice is suggesting for us to operate the line with as much balance as we can muster. While in lines 3 and 6 it appears the proclivity of the lines are too much to contain.

In line one we have a yin line in a yang position. In this submissive line 1 position we can't expect to do much, and yet there is still an operation that leads us to do. So we are advised to avoid putting ourselves above others, and suffer no fault. If this line were to change, we would get no credit for our labor. The Forest likens this to toiling without reward, or as a concubine leaving her husband in the morning.

In line two we have a yang line in a yin position, and balance and flexibility is possible, if we use yin to balance yang. In this case, when yang is balanced with yin, like an old man gaining a young wife, an heir may be producde - the living potential is always present (Yiming). However, if this line were to be pushed to excess and not balanced, the Forest suggest it would be more like giving a cherished daughter to marriage, hoping for wealth but descending to poverty. From this ironic backwards perspective, we see that the excessive energy expended (gift of the daughter) is not matched by a return, and the ridgepole effectively breaks via the excessive loss. Meanwhile a young wife and an older husband often still have potential for an heir. This is important for understanding line 5, which serves as a counterpoint for line 2.

Line 3 is where the ridgepole sags under its weight. It is a yang line in a yang position, but its weight is unable to be supported. It seeks to connect with the yin of line 6 and sees no other option, and nothing can stop it from this capitulation. In the Forest we see someone rushing away on their chariot to greet their family and having great fortune. There is a sense here that one who was important has left their position, and perhaps benefit from being bribed away, even as misfortune is suffered by those whom have been abandoned.

Line 4 is a yang line in a yin position and is able to save the ridgepole from sagging, in possession of the strength needed to hold line 3 in position. However line 4 is in association with the weak line 1 and will trigger misfortune if it does not maintain its integrity, allowing much to collapse and triggering violence, loss of virtue, withholding of the blessing of heaven, and sullying the ancestral temple.

Line 5, well I'll just quote from Richard Lynn's translation of Wang Bi's commentary:

A withered poplar puts forth blossoms. An old woman gets a young husband fro herself. There is no blame, but there is no praise either. {Fifth Yang manages to occupy the exalted position, but because it is a yang line in a yang position, it can never save the ridgepole from danger. However, as it does occupy the exalted position, it also never lets the ridgepole sage down. And this is why blossoms can be put forth here but it is possible to get a husband but impossible to get a wife. Here one is situated at a time when the ridgepole sags and behaves in such a way that "there is no blame, but there is no praise either," so how indeed could one long endure? This is why the blossoms put forth will not last long and a young husband here is really a disgrace.}

"A withered poplar puts forth blossoms," but how could they last long, and "and old woman gets a young husband for herself," but how disgraceful that is!

Where in line 2, there was living potential present with a young wife and an old husband to create a child, it is not as likely for the same to be said of a young husband and an old wife. From a Chinese medicinal perspective, men are fertile for roughly 8 cycles of 8 (64), while women are fertile for 7 cycles of 7 (49). These are rough generalizations for natural patterns that can be influenced by many factors. But the generalization seems to be what is being applied here. Outside of potential for creating a child, it is also believed that young women and young men have different outlets for their hormonal energies. With men physical labor tends to be good for dealing with excessive testosterone, while an emotional outlet tends to be more beneficial for metabolizing feminine hormones. Here it is believed that spending time with the elderly is of great benefit. So in this way as well line 2's match shows a different alchemy than that of line 5.

So here we see a literal resemblance to Putin's position. The state of the Russian army is 'withered' and with the mobilization he is attempting to rejuvenate it with the youthful reservists. However it is not a good alchemical match - one that is likely to only bear temporary blossoming that does not serve to hide the disgrace of the forcefulness of the matching.

Yiming describes this as the strong being unable to yield, continuing to apply full strength, causing the real to be injured by the false.

The Forest describes this line changing as somewhat like playing the stock market and achieving good results. This is one of those changes that there is simply not much proclivity for, as things are not in their proper balance. But if one were able to create something from nothing, there could be benefit, as crafty merchants or those on wall street well know. That does not seem like the situation here however, where what is being leveraged with strength is unlikely to be a gamble that pays off as much as a move that attempts to save face and attempt to justify previous expenditures. There is a chance that with 300,000 reservists Putin could turn things around, but it would not be achieved with head-on action. Rather it would take very clever strategy, using the troops in the right places at the right times. Alas, there is a lot of question as to how many strategic minds are left in the Russian army, and how much freedom they have been given for this type of maneuvering.

Notably, line 6 is where we exit the dynamic where there is potential for balanced action. Excess reaching the peak of destruction is unfortunate; there is no blame on other people. (tl Cleary) Yiming calls this going astray and not returning, the damage is worse the higher one goes; excess reaches the peak of destruction. One calls misfortune upon oneself -- it is no fault of others. This is excess of the great in the sense of being weak and entertaining illusions.

The Forest here gives reference to a story where a boy tries to get the attention of a girl high up on the wall, and her brother doesn't like this and calls on him to be beaten. The father admonishes his son saying he should have had him killed instead, for he is one who could hold a grudge and exercise revenge.

So in most of the line it seems some amount of restraint is possible, however for lines 3 and 6 the line statements appear to indicate that the weight of these lines proclivity is rather difficult to contain.

Here we are in line 5, however given the question it does seem possible things could escalate to the dynamic of line 6, but there is not activity there as of yet.

This divination appears to tap into the dynamic of the call of the reservists literally, and that is indeed the biggest part of this escalation. Not much appears to be indicated regarding NATO, however a lot is revealed in regard to how the reservists are not an ideal marriage here but more an excessive display of strength that is refusing to yield. This is more likely to be a temporary blossoming of that strength rather than a unified front that accomplishes something. This would suggest that there is a limitation on how far things can be pushed before Russia has had enough of being used by Putin. So far there is 'no blame' in a sense, but we can already see given the protests that this isn't a blank check.

 

[rosada]

Thank you so much for this detailed analysis! Interesting how the partner in line five is "old" and the reservists who are being called up now are not strong young soldiers but withered old men.

Excess - Duration: The escalation causes the war to go on longer than it should. It endures excessively.

 

[Daeluin]

Interesting how the partner in line five is "old" and the reservists who are being called up now are not strong young soldiers but withered old men.

Very interesting reports so far of those being drafted. Seems all over the place. People 17 years old. People in their 60's. Students, farmers, anyone. And a lot more than 300,000.

To me across the board we are seeing one commonality among those being drafted - their inexperience.

They are fresh and don't know about war. And nor can they be equipped for war - be they old or young, they will be unable to receive the training that will make "hardened army men" out of them. They don't even get a boot camp, for there is no one to train them.

Perhaps that is why this is so fitting, and why the message seems to be that only blossoms are a result - the implication being that there is no fruit to come after the blossoming. They are fresh and that which would receive them is beyond its ability to merge with them in a fertile pairing. Putin has exhausted the fertility - the living potential - of his army. It is withered and can no longer create new soldiers just because people are sent - it is missing the ability for them to be transformed from people into effective soldiers.

Some excess indeed.

Who drafts farmers? What are your people going to eat? It's like he wants all the able bodied people who could revolt dealt with by the war before things turn too much into a revolution.

Yep, seems like a good way to cause the ridge pole to collapse all the way. Pretty sad when that ridgepole represents what we have achieved as a society.

 

[rosada]

Whoa, that is mind boggling and heartbreaking. Sending his people off to war to keep them from turning on him. Unbelievable. But then, Trump is trying to turn Americans against each other to keep us from locking him up so I guess this what tyrants do...anything so their power 32. Endures.